Demand Forecasting / Order Suggestion

Table of contents

1. Whats is sales-based ordering?
2. Before you start
3. How to configure order suggestions
4. How to use sales-based ordering step by step
5. Important considerations for success

1. What is sales-based ordering?

Sales-based ordering (also called demand forecasting) is a feature that helps you predict how much stock you need for an upcoming period by analysing your historical sales data.

Instead of ordering based on fixed par levels or gut feeling, Apicbase uses actual sales and recipe data to calculate data-driven order proposals, helping you maintain healthy stock levels without over- or under-ordering.

1.1. How demand forecasting works

Sales-based ordering uses a top-down approach:

• Your POS sales are linked to recipes (Bill of Materials) in Apicbase.
• Apicbase translates sold dishes into ingredient usage.
• The system analyses historic sales patterns, often per day of the week (for example: comparing the last four Mondays to forecast the next Monday).
• Based on this, Apicbase calculates expected demand for the selected future period.

This approach adapts automatically to daily fluctuations instead of relying on static assumptions.

2. Before you start

To get reliable results, make sure the following prerequisites are met:

• POS items are linked to recipes - Every sold item must be linked to the correct Apicbase recipe. Unlinked items cannot be translated into ingredient usage.
• Sufficient sales history - For stable “average” predictions, at least 4 weeks of sales data is recommended.
• Consistent inventory management - Regular receiving, waste registration, and stock counts ensure accurate inventory inputs.
• Feature availability - Confirm that Sales-Based Ordering is enabled for your library.

3. How to configure order suggestions

When generating a suggested order, you can tailor the calculation to match your situation.

3.1. Define the ordering period

Set how many days you want to order for, for example:

• 1 day
• 3 days
• 7 days

Apicbase will calculate average demand for those specific upcoming days.

Example: If you usually place orders on Monday for Tuesday–Thursday, set the ordering period to 3 days.

3.2. Select the sales data source

Choose how Apicbase should look at historical sales:

• Actual sales - Uses sales from the same period last week. Best when last week was representative and you want fast reactions.
• Average sales - Uses a running average from the last 4 weeks (for example, averaging the last 4 Mondays). Best for smoothing out anomalies and creating more stable forecasts.

3.3. Scale up or down (revenue & safety stock)

Use the Scale setting to adjust demand:

• Revenue projection Increase or decrease expected revenue (e.g. set to 130% for a holiday weekend).
• Safety stock Add a buffer to avoid running out.
  • Example: set to 105% to add 5% extra stock.

Scaling adjusts ingredient quantities proportionally, based on projected revenue.

3.4. Inventory integration settings

You can choose what inventory data Apicbase takes into account:

• Current stock - Subtracts what you already have on hand from the order proposal.
• Outstanding orders - Subtracts items that are ordered but not yet received.

These options help avoid double-ordering and keep suggested quantities realistic.

4. How to use sales-based ordering step by step

4.1. Step 1 – Open the ordering screen

1. Go to Procurement.
2. Click Create Order.
3. Click Suggest Order (or open it via the More menu).

4.2. Step 2 – Configure the prediction settings

In the settings panel:

• Order for (duration): Select how many days you want to cover.
• Select sales period:
  • Same period last week (actual sales)
  • Same period last 4 weeks (average sales)
• Scale up / down:
  • Example: 105% → safety buffer
  • Example: 130% → expected busy period
• Stock considerations:
  • Toggle Current stock ON to subtract on-hand inventory
  • Toggle Outstanding ordered quantities ON to subtract pending deliveries

4.3. Step 3 – Preview and filter (optional)

Before generating the order, you can:

• Filter by supplier or category
• Exclude specific sales items (for example, dishes not being served)
• Click Preview to review ingredients and quantities

4.4. Step 4 – Generate the order

1. Click Generate / Suggest Order.
2. Apicbase calculates ingredient needs based on:
   • Sales data
   • Recipes (Bill of Materials)
   • Inventory settings
3. Suggested items are added to your shopping cart.

If items already exist in the cart, Apicbase may ask whether to override or add quantities.

4.5. Step 5 – Final adjustments

Once in the cart:

• Adjust quantities manually if needed
• Remove or add items
• Send the final order to suppliers as usual

5. Important considerations for success

• Menu stability matters - Frequent menu changes reduce prediction accuracy until enough sales history exists.
• Link all POS items - Unlinked items distort ingredient usage and order suggestions.
• Always review suggestions - Forecasts are guidance, not guarantees. Consider weather, events, supplier constraints, and operational changes.
• Review weekly: If you consistently run out of stock → increase scale or fix data issues. If you consistently waste → reduce scale, review shelf life, and check recipe accuracy.