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Demand Forecasting / Order Suggestion

Tired of guessing how much to order each week? Demand forecasting (also known as sales-based ordering) helps you plan smarter by using your actual sales data to predict future needs. By translating past sales into ingredient demand, Apicbase suggests what to order and how much—so you can reduce waste, avoid stock-outs, and spend less time worrying about inventory.

Table of contents

1. Whats is sales-based ordering?
2. Before you start
3. How to configure order suggestions
4. How to use sales-based ordering step by step
5. Important considerations for success

1. What is sales-based ordering?

Sales-based ordering (also called demand forecasting) is a feature that helps you predict how much stock you need for an upcoming period by analysing your historical sales data.

Instead of ordering based on fixed par levels or gut feeling, Apicbase uses actual sales and recipe data to calculate data-driven order proposals, helping you maintain healthy stock levels without over- or under-ordering.

1.1. How demand forecasting works

Sales-based ordering uses a top-down approach:

  • Your POS sales are linked to recipes (Bill of Materials) in Apicbase.
  • Apicbase translates sold dishes into ingredient usage.
  • The system analyses historic sales patterns, often per day of the week (for example: comparing the last four Mondays to forecast the next Monday).
  • Based on this, Apicbase calculates expected demand for the selected future period.

This approach adapts automatically to daily fluctuations instead of relying on static assumptions.

2. Before you start

To get reliable results, make sure the following prerequisites are met:

  • POS items are linked to recipes - Every sold item must be linked to the correct Apicbase recipe. Unlinked items cannot be translated into ingredient usage.
  • Sufficient sales history - For stable “average” predictions, at least 4 weeks of sales data is recommended.
  • Consistent inventory management - Regular receiving, waste registration, and stock counts ensure accurate inventory inputs.
  • Feature availability - Confirm that Sales-Based Ordering is enabled for your library.
  • Permissions - Your role needs Create Orders and Suggest orders - Demand Forecasting in the Procurement group. The second permission only works together with Create Orders. Users without them do not see Suggest Order in the Procurement menu.
  • A POS connection - The suggestion is based on the POS sales of the outlet. An outlet without a POS connection can open the page but never gets a suggestion.

3. How to configure order suggestions

When generating a suggested order, you can tailor the calculation to match your situation.

3.1. Define the ordering period

Set how many days you want to order for, for example:

  • 1 day
  • 3 days
  • 7 days

Apicbase will calculate average demand for those specific upcoming days.

Example: If you usually place orders on Monday for Tuesday–Thursday, set the ordering period to 3 days.

3.2. Select the sales data source

Choose how Apicbase should look at historical sales:

  • Actual sales - Uses sales from the same period last week. Best when last week was representative and you want fast reactions.
  • Average sales - Uses a running average from the last 4 weeks (for example, averaging the last 4 Mondays). Best for smoothing out anomalies and creating more stable forecasts.

3.3. Scale up or down (revenue & safety stock)

Use the Scale setting to adjust demand:

  • Revenue projection Increase or decrease expected revenue (e.g. set to 130% for a holiday weekend).
  • Safety stock Add a buffer to avoid running out.
    • Example: set to 105% to add 5% extra stock.

Scaling adjusts ingredient quantities proportionally, based on projected revenue.

3.4. Inventory integration settings

You can choose what inventory data Apicbase takes into account:

  • Current stock - Subtracts what you already have on hand from the order proposal.
  • Outstanding orders - Subtracts items that are ordered but not yet received.

These options help avoid double-ordering and keep suggested quantities realistic.

3.5. Default settings

The Order for setting takes 1 to 14 days and Scale up / down takes 1 to 200 percent. To change the defaults of an outlet, click Default Settings on the page. It opens Demand forecasting default settings in the outlet settings. You need edit rights for the outlet.

The Demand Forecasting page with order suggestions and the Default Settings link top right

The Demand forecasting default settings heading in the outlet form

4. How to use sales-based ordering step by step

4.1. Step 1 – Open the ordering screen

  • Go to Procurement and click Suggest Order.
    The Procurement menu with Suggest Order highlighted
  • If your library has more than one outlet, select the outlet you want to order for. With one outlet, or as an outlet user, you go straight to your outlet.

4.2. Step 2 – Configure the prediction settings

In the settings panel:

  • Order for (duration): Select how many days you want to cover.
  • Select sales period:
    • Same period last week (actual sales)
    • Same period last 4 weeks (average sales)
    • Same period one year ago - actual sales: uses the actual sales of the same week number and the same weekdays in the previous year. Nothing is averaged: the suggestion follows what you sold in that week last year.
  • Scale up / down:
    • Example: 105% → safety buffer
    • Example: 130% → expected busy period
  • Stock considerations:
    • Switch Take into account current stock on to subtract the stock you have.
    • Switch Take into account outstanding order quantities on to subtract deliveries you are still waiting for.

4.3. Step 3: Get the suggestion

  1. Click Suggest Orders.
  2. The suggestion appears under Preview order suggestions: per ingredient the quantity used, the supplier, the package, the outstanding order quantity, the current stock and the quantity to order. Apicbase picks the package you last ordered if it can still be ordered, otherwise the cheapest one. You can choose another package.
  3. To leave out dishes you will not serve, select them in Exclude sales items below the suggestion. Then click Suggest Orders again.

4.4. Step 4: Add the suggestion to the cart

Select the lines you want and click Add selected to cart and..., then choose to stay on the page or go to the cart. Or click Add all to cart. Apicbase creates an order per supplier in your cart. Nothing is sent to the supplier yet.

4.5. Step 5 – Final adjustments

Once in the cart:

  • Adjust quantities manually if needed
  • Remove or add items
  • Send the final order to suppliers as usual

5. Important considerations for success

  • Menu stability matters - Frequent menu changes reduce prediction accuracy until enough sales history exists.
  • Link all POS items - Unlinked items distort ingredient usage and order suggestions.
  • Always review suggestions - Forecasts are guidance, not guarantees. Consider weather, events, supplier constraints, and operational changes.
  • Review weekly: If you consistently run out of stock → increase scale or fix data issues. If you consistently waste → reduce scale, review shelf life, and check recipe accuracy.
  • Enough sales data - On Same period last 4 weeks, you can get the message The sales data is insufficient to perform this operation. It means Apicbase has not found enough sales for this option. Choose Same period last week, or check that your POS sales are arriving. The ordering window always starts tomorrow. Same period last week means the 7 days ending yesterday and Same period last 4 weeks means the 28 days ending yesterday.